IVEA Response to Occupational Employment Forecast 2015

"Education sector managers need to closely examine the predictions for employment which are included in the FAS/ESRI Occupation and Employment Forecast 2015 which was issued today" says Michael Moriarty.

Subject to certain conditions attaching to the growth of the world economy it is predicted that employment will begin to grow in 2011 with an expected increase in job creation of 250,000 between 2010 and 2015.

While there is to be growth in overall employment in that period, it is also predicted that employment levels within the education sector will remain relatively flat. This is both surprising and disappointing.

Commenting on this report Michael Moriarty, General Secretary states: " If the prediction of nil or minimal growth in the education sector is correct, then there are significant challenges for all of us in the education sector particularly in the context of the increased enrolment currently in primary level and feeding through to second level schools. It is anticipated that an additional 100,000 pupils will be in the first and second level school system by 2015. This additional student cohort will require a significant increase in teacher numbers so it can only be assumed that employment numbers in education could be cut elsewhere".

Mr Moriarty also states: "Vocational education and training bodies such as VECs must also take heed of the predictions that job growth will be predominantly in areas such as science, business, information technology and the services industry.

Education and training must be given the capacity and resources to re-focus skills enhancement on the relevant skills such as software engineering (growth of 42.4% between 2008/15), science professionals (42.7% growth between 2008/15), and business/finance/legal professionals (16.1% growth between 2008/15).

On behalf of member VECs, I remain concerned that the capacity to address the future skills needs required for these job growth areas is being handicapped by the continuing cap on PLC courses and the cutting of 500 places in the Back to Education Initiative (BTEI).

In line with the European Commission's strategy on future skills for future jobs the vocational education sector needs to be re-focused and resourced to deliver on the skills needs of future and current generations. Restricting VECs' capacity to respond to future skills needs makes no sense when this report predicts the need for new skills training as there is little hope of future employment in particular categories of employment such as electrical (down 37.1% between 2008/15), clothing and textiles (predicted drop of 68.3% between 2008/15). This points to the need for a radical re-skilling policy.

This report inherently challenges the education sector to quickly adapt to different predicted growth trends in employment in certain occupational areas. It is also clear that there is little solace for unemployed people with low skills and by 2015 it is predicted that 46% of employed persons are expected to hold third level qualifications".

Mr Moriarty concludes "Our member VECs are fully aware of this challenge to address the needs of thousands of people who will need to re-skill and up-skill but government must strategically resource our training capacity to deliver on the skills needs going forward".

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© IVEA 2012